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"I'll be sitting in this office by 2027," the Prime Minister stated, joking that if the conversation proceeded smoothly, he might welcome us into Number 10 for a follow-up talk in the coming year.

There is never any time off for those in the top job. Just an hour before our chat started, Sir Keir had been speaking with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and working to understand exactly what had transpired in Venezuela, where his close political chum, US President Donald Trump, had just targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once the discussion, which was considerably lengthier than normal, had concluded, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

As the new year begins, Starmer appears to have had a kind of a revitalisation. Perhaps even just a bit of a rest with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

That certainly seemed to have put him in a more positive mood than at the difficult end of 2025, a awful political year for him.

Yet, are he and his supporters deluding themselves if they think his fortunes are set to turn around?

Party Concerns

The grisly reality for the prime minister is that a significant number of his colleagues think he's not very good at his job. A faction of them would sooner take a risk and remove him this year.

However Sir Keir was having none of it when we spoke on Saturday morning.

Repeatedly he told me he'd be "assessed at the general election", arguing no one would take his electoral mandate from him – even if the optimal path of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 might be for Labour to switch leader.

"We are in the battle of our generation and I plan to be at the forefront," he said.

The May Elections

The challenge for the PM is that he will be scrutinised well ahead of then – in a major set of elections in May throughout the UK. He sought to argue, maybe too much, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

True – up to a point. But although he may not want to admit it, No 10 will be held accountable by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no scenario under which he would step down, should one of his MPs contested his leadership for the job, should those elections be very poor for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He attempted to explain his unpopularity by saying the voters was naturally eager for things to improve. He sought to convince me, and the public, that 2026 would be distinct.

The economy would strengthen notwithstanding rising unemployment, he said, when policies the government put in place during their initial turbulent year began to bear fruit.

• He committed to empty asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, although he did not put a new date on that.
• He added too, with the proviso that it wasn't a done deal, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any point since Russia's major invasion.
• He revealed for the first time that Western allies were now discussing how to coordinate US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to protect a possible peace.

His central argument is that soon the country will "turn the corner".

A Consistent Script

The PM may have communicated with more energy than observed from him for a some time – calmer, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of facing pressure from many directions for a more decisive approach, with greater political clarity, more vigour, more speed and more urgency, his explanations were well-known ones.

When he finds himself in considerable political trouble, should he consider a different script?

No administration, and especially not one that has been unpopular for many months, has everything its as desired.

Sir Keir's problems are not only because governing is challenging, but because he and his team have erred, including in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The PM told me that he regretted saying he was "delighted" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an controversy when statements he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Sir Keir blamed "procedures" for not realising what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is inviting obvious political risks as the year progresses. His friendship with the US president acquires a new jeopardy after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over his career, the thought he would be comfortable with these events seems far-fetched.

International Law and Brexit

He stated he was a "career-long champion of international law" but the public "simply do not have the full picture at the moment".

Opponents called for him to denounce it before the interview. And the government is likely to face further scrutiny to give an definitive view in Parliament in the next few days.

There has also always been growing pressure in the Labour party to revisit some of the outcomes of Brexit.

Sir Keir disputes he's doing that, but his new specific commitment to move closer with the European trading bloc – the vast economic European market – will probably trigger accusations that he is going back on his vow never to try to overturn the results that flowed from Brexit.

A commitment to cosy up to more of the single market will delight some on his backbenches, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to